Weekend Show – Mike Larson & Dave Erfle – 2026’s Big Setup: Volatility Ahead, Metals Roaring, and Why Silver Stocks Lag the Spike
This Weekend Show pairs a “big-tent” market roadmap with a boots-on-the-ground metals deep dive. Mike Larson previews what investors can expect at The MoneyShow Las Vegas (Feb 23–25) and the themes gaining traction in 2026 – from AI-adjacent winners to income plays in a choppy tape. Then Dave Erfle tackles the silver surge head-on, arguing this spike is structurally different (supply-driven, not purely speculative) while explaining the disconnect: why silver equities aren’t currently delivering the leverage many investors expected.
- Segment 1 & 2 – Mike Larson, editor-in-chief of MoneyShow, joins the KE Report to preview the upcoming MoneyShow Las Vegas conference and discuss its broad, generalist focus, key 2026 investment themes, and how investors can best navigate education, networking, and market volatility across asset classes including AI, metals, income strategies, and macro trends.
- Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences – https://www.moneyshow.com/
- Segment 3 & 4 – We’re joined by Dave Erfle, founder and editor of Junior Miner Junky, to discuss why silver’s explosive rally is fundamentally different from past spikes – driven by critical industrial demand, ongoing supply deficits, and global physical market dynamics – along with what any correction could mean for physical metal versus equities and where he’s finding opportunity across gold, silver stocks, and copper.
- Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter – https://www.juniorminerjunky.com/
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- The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
- Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/
Investment disclaimer:
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
Hi Thomas, believe it or not if we get a “CRASH” everything will go down including Gold and Silver, but they will hold their value, as they always do. I have studied The Great Depression of the 1930’s in depth and I believe our economies are in much worse shape now than they were in 1929. DT
There are many similarities to the 1930‘s (protectionism, nationalism, …)
How do you protect yourself against such a big crash?
Sell everything and hold only cash?
You would have missed a lot of the upside in PM stocks. And gold and silver just started their rally somewhere at the second half of last year. Most of the upside is probably not yet reflected in the earnings of the gold and silver producers.
Hi Thomas, you have to have a diversified portfolio and that doesn’t mean being diversified with stocks, you must stay out of debt, have some physical metal, some real estate, some collectibles, some cash, as well as some stocks. But if you are just starting out I think the best plan is to have some physical metal for insurance. Stocks are way too risky for most of the public especially with the debt loads that all Western Governments are holding. Something we didn’t see in the 1930’s that makes this time much more dangerous for a collapse in the stock market. DT
There are many similarities to the 1930‘s (protectionism, nationalism, …)
How do you protect yourself against such a big crash?
Sell everything and hold only cash?
You would have missed a lot of the upside in PM stocks. And gold and silver just started their rally somewhere at the second half of last year. Most of the upside is probably not yet reflected in the earnings of the gold and silver producers.
Maybe a mix of cash and staying invested is the right think?
At least the options expired yesterday. They will have to come up with something else next week. Maybe a soybean crisis….
It will take just one BIG BOY BANK to step forward and be the 1st early adopter in silver miners and Voila! A 2020 Mar- Sept 153% gain Ag event follows
Came across this post
https://x.com/graddhybpc/status/2012469377686192267/photo/1
Great, but the more timely, exciting breakout line is drawn off the 2016 top, not the 2011 top:
https://schrts.co/AJYJHNxk
SILJ looks better than SIL but the two share most of their top 10 holding.
https://schrts.co/jRDZVmQu
Opportunities In Growth-Oriented Silver Producers – Part 14
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – (01/17/2026)
Charts included for Silver, (SIL), Avino Silver and Gold (TSX:ASM) (NYSE American:ASM), Santacruz Silver (TSXV: SCZ) (OTCQB: SCZMF), Americas Gold & Silver (TSX: USA)(NYSE American: USAS), Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (TSXV: SM) (OTCQX: SMDRF), Guanajuato Silver (TSXV:GSVR)(OTCQX:GSVRF), Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE: EXK) (TSX: EDR), and Coeur Mining, Inc. (NYSE: CDE)
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/opportunities-in-growth-oriented-f50
+39% week for Defiance Silver as it broke through two big forks on huge volume, record volume, in fact…
https://schrts.co/SjmFTNfV
ISVLF breakout:
https://schrts.co/VNVjMqjZ
I had gotten back into Inteepid last week and was thinking of moving some of my impact over to Intrepid also. After looking at Excelsiors charts versus your Impact charts, looks like I should be adding more Impact. What a late bloomer.
Impact is now intriguing for sure. Its no secret why the stock did not participate in the silver rally in 25. The company broke even in Q1 25, lost 2 million in Q2, lost 0.6 million in Q3. This when silver went from average prices of $33, $36, $39 in those quarters.
Now, like every other silver miner, Impact will post Q4 financials that will reflect an average silver price somewhere between $56 and $60.
As crappy an operator as 25 proved it to be, Impact stock is waking up. This dog is about to have its day.
Cheers.
Your reading of it needs work. The issue stemmed from the purchase of the zinc company and the dilution that it brought along with the psychological part among those who hated the idea. From there, plenty of money was spent on getting the new project in order, which is ongoing. That’s brought more uncertainty along with the need for more dilution than would’ve otherwise been needed.
The economics of the silver projects have been well understood for a long time and they’ve never gotten in the way in the past. In fact, just the opposite. Where do you think the leverage to silver came from? When it went roughly 12x in 2016, the situation was the same: zero profitability but improving. It was similar in 2020.
+36% week for Brixton Metals on biggest volume in 6.5 years…
https://schrts.co/TtMEYPUV
Yeah Matthew. Saw that coming. Learned reading the signs from your past calls on Brixton. 😉
Saw that. Added 10,000 more shares to Brixton Friday.
It’s called opportunity cost Mathew. By being buried in IPT in 2025 shareholders lost the very real capital appreciation available to investors in literally dozens of other silver producers. Gains which they could compound this year had they not been in IPT.
Obvious. Text book stuff.
Yes, obvious but unrelated to your first comment or my reply to it. To call IPT a crappy operator is just ignorant, very much like Terry.
Socrates losing the plot again. It goes back farther than 2025. IPT is a crap company compared to so many others.
Yes, Dunning Kruger, it goes back to early 2023 when the zinc company was purchased.
Actually met those guys when doing post grad. Their theory has been discredited, Socrates.
Ignorance is your stock in trade Mathew.
As you skank around the site always condescending, pretentious and picking fights others–real investors–are getting ahead assuredly no thanks to you.
You must have a lot of friends.
Yes Blazeb first half of 2025 wasn’t the time to be in impact but accumulation in the 2nd half with profits from other plays certainly has turned out to be fortuitous. Impact has always been a bit of a laggard but does play catch up and this time the price of zinc is an added variable to the equation….and zincs been looking good too.
Yes Wolfster. As i said IPT is now intriguing to be sure.
It’s a crappy operator yet intriguing? It was a lot more intriguing a couple months ago when the majority of silver miners were clearly topping while it was bottoming. But of course you knew that.
Now let me remind you that I treated you perfectly well until YOU were a PRICK a few years ago for no legitimate reason.
+30% week for IMPACT Silver on huge volume…
https://schrts.co/IhWcmisi
Jeffrey Gundlach is saying that private credit markets might be the source of the next crisis . But gold falling in a crisis might be because everyone sells their precious metals to meet debts.
Hey Ex. If you want to lend me some money I’ll gladly buy more plays I consider undervalued.😉…..honestly I think why most of us here and other investors who like metal stocks aren’t buying them at what we see as undervalued vs the the actual metal prices is because we already are fully invested.
Yes … been fully invested but just moving from “happy” to “glad” since early October. Waiting for either breakouts, failures, non-movers or big movers to switch things around. For a while they were all moving … then the brakes were applied and most days”some up and some down”. Biggest concern is a major crash and we have to have sympathy for the general markets.
Hi Wolfster. I’m just now getting around to reading these comments as I was out-of-pocket over the weekend.
Yeah, that is a good point that many die-hard resource investors may have already been fully invested for some time now (me included), and thus not adding as much to quality high-torque names even though their valuations are becoming more compelling.
Still, there has been a reasonable amount of money with plans to allocate it to the precious metal complex and resource stocks over to the sidelines and not being acted upon. Some fund managers I respect are 20-30% in cash right now, awaiting new fat pitches.
Also many investors in conferences last fall mentioned that they felt that some of the better stocks had “run away from them”, and now in speaking with investors the dynamics in late 2025 and early 2026 have shifted over to disbelief in these epic metals price runs and the expectations many have for a sector correction to lower levels.
I guess the good news is that there are plenty of investors wait to “buy the dip” now that the bull market is really starting to sprint ahead.
There is also plenty of resource investing capital that has been trapped in lifestyle junior drillplay companies that should be liquidated and redeployed into the names that are excelling in the high metals price backdrop.
Beyond all those nuances, it will be the new investor inflows into the sector that drive companies higher. That will be a mix of analysts that suddenly wake up to the earnings potential in the metals producers, and also momentum investors, strictly trading the price action they see on the charts. Momo traders are a 2-way street though…. they pile in during strength, but then run for the exits just a quick once corrective moves set in.
Regardless, I just believe that after Q4 earnings are reported and digested, as traders set their gaze to how Q1 operations and financials are going, then it will be hard to escape the reality that these PM stocks should be valued much higher than where they are at (even after the big moves higher we’ve already seen).
Cheers!
Fly like an eagle! 🦅
Silver eagles repriced big time.
Shizer about to hit the fan—
I believe the junior producers are telling everyone that this bull is long from being over. Also, nobody is mentioning the tremendous volume of some of these stocks the past 5-6 months. I finally took some profit on long term holdings of HL this past Friday but still hold a boatload of short term stock. Also, the $indu:$gold ratio has a long way to go in my opinion. I believe this will be the third time in history where we might see a ratio below 2. That’s one of the factors that would tell me it’s time to exit the vast majority of my position. I’ve started to take a position in an etf that is currently bottoming on the monthly chart and has a yield of 30+%. That’s right; a 30+%. The dividend is payed weekly and last week was 60+%. It’s been halved over the last several month and I believe it is now scraping out a bottom on the monthly chart. It’s only for play money but I’ll slowly take a larger position if it doesn’t break below the lower BB which I don’t think it will since all other technical indicators at this time are scraping the bottom as well.
Doc, the Market Sniper has a target of 85 for HL so you were wise to sell some common stock of HL provided you put that money into the long term 50 dollar calls. Do you think a Big 10 team will win the NCAA football title for the 3rd year in a row? Should we sell our silver and bet the ranch on Indiana?
Last August the odds were 150 to 1 against IU to win the title. We should have bet on them then. Go Hoosiers!
Bonzo, Indiana all the way—-they’re like a well oiled machine.
A lot of posters here are salivating about the thought that Silver and Gold are going much higher and the miners will be printing a lot of money by selling the same at increased prices, but what is being forgotten is that precious metal only has increased in value because the fiat currency you will be paid in has depreciated dramatically not that precious metals have gone up. Where do you put your money before you are left holding the bag. When the dollar defaults and you are sitting in a lot of cash in stock, you could find yourself starting over unless you are smart enough to get out in time and place your winnings in some hard asset, that will maintain it’s value. That may not be precious metal stocks because if there is a crash in the stock market you will get swept away with the flood that is coming at just the moment you are feeling that your ship has come in.
It is not here yet so you have time to think about it but at some point if you aren’t already properly diversified and you don’t act in time you will experience the art of being a “Bagholder”! (PS. all fiat currencies collapse this is history, with all the debt this time will not be different) Lol! DT
DT,
Are you talking going full Warren Buffet? Boring stocks like ETFs that pay and grow dividends year after year with some cash for emergencies?
Hi Clutchdog, What I am talking about is that there are specific signs of change of uncertain significance. This is much bigger than Warren Buffet and ETF’s it is about you. See my post to Thomas at the top of this thread where I talk about diversification. The government backed by the dollar will not be able to help you, you must be prepared to look after yourself and your family.
The United States and the Western World of 2025 is a different place from the United States and Europe after The Second World War; there is no denying that. The West is totally bankrupt. An old order is giving way to a new, dominated by China and The BRIC’s. DT
I plan to buy forclosed houses for rental income & tax incentives.
Very good idea, Buzz. DT
Buzz, diversification is always a good thing. In my before life, one of my businesses was commercial real estate and apartment complexes. After selling my commercial property, I sold my last 100 unit apartment complex in 2007 before the crash. A company out of New York paid me a price that didn’t make sense. Not only that they gave me a second mortgage as well. The financials didn’t support their price and I thought they must have purchased it to write off gains on other investments. Then the crash came and they stopped paying me on the second mortgage after 3 years into the 5 year note. I didn’t really care since the second mortgage was frosting on the cake. Two years later after the crash I got a call from a property manager who told me the bank got the property back and were willing to sell it for a third of what I had sold it for. I thought I would go to the bank and offer them 70 cents (cash) on the dollar and figured they would take it since the banks had a tremendous number of properties that were given back at that time. However, my wife nixed it—-as you know, the housing market and rental markets go back and forth in cycles and rental income was in a trough back then. If I had purchased that property back then I would have made a killing since rents started to really accelerate after the crash. Just remember; if you get into the rental market and depreciate your assets over time there’s that little something called “recapture” when you sell that asset in the future.
Your wife wanted to sleep at night…. 🙂 I think she was the smart one.. 🙂
Health is a lot more important than money in your older years… 🙂
If, one has never owned rentals… they have a lot to learn… 🙂
Well put OOTB, True, and true, you have to have the right personality at the right time. But Jerry, you know Doc isn’t a spring chicken anymore because he is afraid of risk! Cock-A-Doodle-Do! LOL! DT 🤣🤣🤣
🙂
There are a lot of old chickens around here… 🙂
You’re right but my speculative juices are still there and my entrepreneurial senses as well. I still look at businesses and think: I would love to try my hand at that. I could do better.
Thanks Doc and Jerry for defending seniority, experience and wisdom.
Thx Doc, I’ve been listening to Del Walmsley radio & getting on the learning curve.
Silver 30m, new high…
Silver 1h, moving with the dollar in 2026 so far…
Gold around $4600 at the moment
It only needs a black swan event and gold goes $10.000+
Taking Greenland with military forces would be such an event
I am not hoping for Gold at $10.000 or $20.000 very soon, because it would be not a nice world to live in
On CBS yesterday there was a discussion about what a Greenland invasion would mean for Canada. Always thought that Canada is one of the safest places on Earth. Seems that this not the case anymore.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.7048891
Hope that Gold stays around $5000-$6000 in 2026 and we don‘t see a black swan event. Know that everybody here hopes for higher Gold prices. But a World with $20.000 Gold is nothing anybody should wish for.